FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, June 11, 1997 - *** New reports of blue mold are coming in from many places. *** Blue mold has been spotted in Martin and Hertford County in E NC; Horry County, in NE SC; Mecklenburg County, in S central VA; Madison County, in the central mountains of NC (first report of blue mold on NC's burley crop); Lee County, in SW VA; and Hancock County, in NE TN. Other NE TN counties with blue mold include Grainger, Claiborne, Jefferson, and Hawkins. Given the favorable weather conditions in the eastern U.S. during the past two weeks, it's likely that there are other outbreaks that have gone undiscovered or unreported. EVERYONE should be scouting their fields for signs of the disease!

A number of the new and existing source areas are SERIOUS Threats, including the two new sources in the southern Appalachian Mountains at Marshall, NC and Jonesville, VA. The weather will remain favorable for at least a few more days. The following regions are at HIGH RISK of disease development for spore releases Wednesday and Thursday: All of TN, All of KY, NC mountains, SW Virginia, S West Virginia, S Illinois, S Indiana, S SC, S GA, and N FL. In addition, the rest of Virginia is at Moderate Risk.

Growers near the coast of the mid-Atlantic states and through southern New England are at Moderate risk as well. This is the first time this season that growers in New England have faced significant risk. Spores from E NC and SE PA are moving in that direction, with possible deposition taking place sometime later Thursday or Friday. Finally, the sources in S Texas are minimal threats today and Thursday, with only a slight chance of localized development possible.

In order to best cover the known sources for the forecasts, we have decided to use the Pearson, GA source as a central location to represent the many S GA/N FL disease sites. Marshall, NC and Jonesville, VA are being added to the rotation. The two of them considered together should give a good representation of the sources in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Reno, GA and Jesup, GA will be monitored but there won't be official forecasts produced for those locations. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Pearson, GA (S GA/N FL); Columbia, TN; Marshall, NC; Jonesville, VA

TN (all), KY (all), NC mountains, SW VA, S WV, S IL, S IN, S SC, S GA, N FL

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Pearson, Georgia
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Marshall, North Carolina
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 11 June 1997.