FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, July 9, 1997 - *** More reports of blue mold are in. *** Active sites have recently been reported in the central and southern mountains of NC and southeastern KY. We also have the first report of blue mold in the Northeast, another active location in Hartford County, Connecticut. Periodic updates of new disease discoveries will be forthcoming.

Threat levels from the various sources are modest today and Thursday. All the potential disease development the next day or two comes from Wednesday's activity, but none is serious. Sources in the southern Appalachian Mountains, north-central KY, and southeast PA are Moderate Threats. Mild threats come from the other sources in the Ohio Valley and south-central VA. All the known sources are Low Threats on Thursday, as the weather will be unfavorable for spore survival during transport.

There are NO High Risk areas today or Thursday. The main region at risk is the southern Appalachian Mountains. The risk is Moderate for today, but low for Thursday. Moderate Risk areas include eastern KY, SW and W VA, S WV, NE TN, N GA, and the western half of NC. The SE PA source poses a problem for growers in that region; there is Moderate Risk for E PA, NJ, SE NY, and W CT. Parts of E VA and S MD may also be threatened by the Jeffress, VA source area. However, the risk for these areas should be no more than Weakly Moderate. All the growing regions should be at Low Risk on Thursday.

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: NONE

HIGH RISK GROWING AREAS: NONE

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Jeffress, Virginia
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Hopkinsville, KY
• Shelbyville, KY
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 9 July 1997.