FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, July 2, 1997 - *** The weather for the middle and end of this week will be less favorable for blue mold development. *** The only Serious Threat on the board is Lancaster, PA. Conditions in the upper mid-Atlantic region are favorable for disease development Wednesday and Thursday. The growing areas of eastern Pennsylvania are at HIGH RISK for today's activity and Strongly Moderate Risk on Thursday. New York is at Moderate Risk both days, and any growers in the Northeast U.S. are also at Strongly Moderate Risk for Thursday's spore release from the Lancaster area. Deposition will occur later Thursday afternoon or Thursday night.

Due to the recent stretch of unfavorable weather, disease activity in the eastern Carolinas has diminished. Sources in eastern NC or NE SC are mild threats for Wednesday's spore release. Cloudy skies and scattered showers may give rise to some localized disease development, but otherwise, this is a Low Threat region through this weekend.

The south-central Virginia area is a Moderate Threat today and Thursday. Growers near the sources are at Weakly Moderate Risk the next two days. Spores from this source also pose a Moderate Risk to Maryland, PA, and NY from today's release, and Weakly Moderate Risk to eastern VA from Thursday's release. This region is a Low to Mild threat over the weekend to local growers.

Charles Hadden in Tennessee and Bill Nesmith in Kentucky report mostly low levels of disease activity in their states, though some cases are more severe. There is an actively sporulating area in western KY near Hopkinsville, and this site has been added to the forecasts. However, conditions will be mostly unfavorable for disease development from Wednesday through the weekend. All three sources in the Ohio Valley region are Low Threats during this period, and pose Low Risk to growers.

Finally, sources in the southern Appalachian Mountains are Low Threats today and Thursday, Mild Threats for this weekend. There is Low Risk for growers in and around this area today and Thursday. The weather is mostly sunny and the chance of rain is slim. Growers in this region will be at Weakly Moderate Risk during the weekend, though, as each day there will be partly cloudy skies and a decent chance of afternoon showers or t'storms. TK

No Forecasts on Friday !! Next issue will be Monday, July 7.

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Lancaster, PA

Eastern PA

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Jeffress, Virginia
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Hopkinsville, KY
• Shelbyville, KY
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 2 July 1997.