Southern Ontario, Canada
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, July 25, 1997 - *** The Forecast Center is adjusting its source coverage. *** As this year's epidemic progresses farther northward, we are making some changes in our regular forecast coverage. Sources in eastern NC, south-central VA and north-central NC, west-central TN, and western KY are being dropped from the regular forecast rotation. Your Forecaster will continue to watch over the situation at these locations, and any significant threat will be reported. Growers in these regions should continue to pay close attention to their local weather conditions.
Blue Mold has been found in Canada. Dan Van Hooren reports that blue mold was discovered and confirmed on July 24 in Elgin County, Ontario, on the north shore of Lake Erie. The suspicion is that the disease may have been present for a few weeks. This source is being added to the forecast rotation, which gives us sources in east-central KY, the southern Appalachian mountains, southeast PA, CT, and now southern Ontario, Canada.
The new Canadian source is a Serious Threat this weekend. A front is approaching this area, and conditions are going to be favorable for disease development, probably through Sunday. Growers in the southern Ontario region are at HIGH RISK for spore releases Friday and Saturday, with spore deposition taking place sometime on Saturday. The weather on Sunday is expected to be at least somewhat favorable for disease development, and there is Moderate Risk for this region on that day.
The weather over the rest of the growing are will be mostly unfavorable for blue mold this weekend. Now that Tropical Storm Danny is moving on, high pressure is building into the eastern U.S., and many areas will see a return to hot, dry weather for the next few days. However, growers in the southern Appalachian Mountains will be at Moderate Risk this weekend, despite the generally unfavorable conditions. Paul Shoemaker in NC indicates that blue mold is present in more than half of the fields visited by the county extension agents. Though disease activity levels are usually low, conditions in the mountains can allow blue mold to sustain itself, and some favorable weather has occurred this week. Elsewhere, no long-range threats are expected, and growers will be at Low Risk during the weekend. The exception may be in the Connecticut growing region, where some localized disease development may occur on Friday and again on Sunday. Growers will be at a Moderate Risk situation. TK
SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Port Stanley, Ontario, Canada
Southern Ontario, Canada
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 25 July 1997.