FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, July 23, 1997 - *** Conditions in the eastern U.S. will be favorable for blue mold Wednesday and Thursday. *** Improving weather will spread from west to east and south to north through the latter part of this week. In the meantime, growers will have to endure some very favorable weather for blue mold. All the source regions are Serious Threats except for those in the western Ohio Valley and eastern NC, and they are Moderate Threats.

The following areas are at HIGH RISK of disease development both today and Thursday: All of the southern Appalachian Mountains, from north Georgia up through eastern KY and southern West Virginia; central NC and central VA, northern MD, and SE Pennsylvania. In addition, the eastern half of KY is at High Risk on Wednesday, and growers in the Connecticut area are at High Risk on Thursday. Growers near the source regions face the greatest danger.

There are some Moderate Risk areas also. On Wednesday, western KY and central TN are at risk before the weather improves. Both Wednesday and Thursday, there's Moderate Risk for growers in eastern NC, eastern and northern VA, and areas of MD away from SE Pennsylvania. Finally, growers in Canada, especially those near Lakes Erie and Ontario, face a Moderate Risk situation on Thursday. Spores from the Connecticut region may be washed out in southern Ontario on Thursday night. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Jeffress, VA; Winchester, KY; Southern Appalachian Mountains; Lancaster, PA; Windsor, CT

Wednesday: Eastern half of KY

Thursday: Connecticut growing region

Both days: Southeast PA; Northern MD; central sections of NC and VA; Appalachian Mountains from southern WV and eastern KY southward to far north GA

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Jeffress, Virginia
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Hopkinsville, KY
• Winchester, KY
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania
• Windsor, Connecticut

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 23 July 1997.