FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, July 16, 1997 - *** The weather in the growing regions of eastern North America remains mostly unfavorable for blue mold. *** All the source regions are Low Threats today and Thursday with the exception of those in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Even though some areas will have showers today, the mostly sunny weather during the late morning and early afternoon hours will ensure much spore death during transport. Only those source regions that have some cloud cover during those times will pose much threat. In addition, the unfavorable weather over much of the growing areas the past week has probably caused diminished activity.

Nearly everyone is at Low Risk of disease development today and Thursday. The exceptions are the growers in the southern Appalachian Mountains and the western half of NC, who are at Moderate Risk from today's spore release. This includes SE KY, SW VA, far E TN, and western NC. For Thursday's release, everyone is at Low Risk.

Windsor, Connecticut is being added as a source location. Blue mold was reported in CT last week and the Forecast Center received samples today. There is also the possibility that the disease may be widespread in the Connecticut growing region. The practices involved in growing shade tobacco also provide a more favorable environment for the establishment of blue mold. Given these facts, this location has been added to the forecast rotation. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: NONE

HIGH RISK GROWING AREAS: NONE

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Jeffress, Virginia
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Hopkinsville, KY
• Shelbyville, KY
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania
• Windsor, Connecticut

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 16 July 1997.