FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, August 4, 1997 - *** The frontal system pushing through the growing regions is causing some problems. *** Unsettled weather is bringing about some elevated risk situations early this week. Most of the threat is from today's activity as a cold front drops southward, but conditions on Tuesday will be favorable in a few places.

The southern Appalachian Mountains are a focal point for today's spore releases. Winds are carrying airborne spores mostly west to east, and the mountains are getting spores from several locations. There is Moderate Risk for growers in E KY, S and SE Ohio, NE TN, and western and central NC. HIGH RISK areas include SE KY, S WV, and SW VA. On Tuesday, leftover cloudiness and a chance of showers brings Moderate Risk to the mountains growers again, from N GA through SE KY and S WV.

Other areas of concern are in the north. There are widespread areas of clouds and showers moving through the CT and southeast PA growing regions, and there's some favorable conditions in southern Ontario as well. The southeast PA and CT growing regions are at HIGH RISK today, and the southern Ontario area is at Strongly Moderate Risk. The CT region will be HIGH RISK again on Tuesday, but conditions in southern Ontario and SE PA should improve enough so that growers will be at Low Risk. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Jonesville, VA; Lancaster, PA; Windsor, CT

SE Kentucky, S WV, Southwest VA; Southeast PA; Connecticut

• Winchester, KY
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania
• Windsor, Connecticut
• Port Stanley, Ontario, Canada

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 4 August 1997.