FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, April 7, 1997 - Over the weekend, the potential threat from the Cuban source did not materialize. Sunny skies near the source region on both Saturday and Sunday minimalized the danger as the solar exposure likely killed any released spores. In addition, the trajectory on Saturday went west and northwest before turning north, and Sunday's trajectory flowed slowly northwest for about 8 hours and then turned southwest. Given these factors, it's unlikely that the Florida growers faced any significant risk. This source won't present any danger to the U.S. for the next day or two, either, though some localized development is possible tomorrow.
Conditions in S Texas and NE Mexico will become favorable for blue mold development again by tomorrow. The trailing western end of a cold front is hung up just south of the U.S. border. Clouds are prevalent in NE Mexico today and increasing in S Texas. Good chance of showers in this region by Tuesday. No long-range development is expected, but localized development is probable on Tuesday. For the rest of Mexico, the weather is mostly unfavorable for long-range and short-range disease development. Some localized development is possible today near Papantla and Tepic, but conditions will become less favorable at those locations by tomorrow. TK
SERIOUS THREATS: None
HIGH RISK AREAS: None
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 7 April 1997.