FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, April 28, 1997 - Conditions in the eastern U.S. continue to be favorable for blue mold development today. Some improvement will occur Tuesday, and the huge weather system responsible for all the rain will be gone completely by Wednesday. The Gainesville source is a Serious Threat again today. Spore release was suppressed due to heavy rain this morning, however, and any spores released are coming down near the source this afternoon. Northern Florida and southern Georgia are High Risk areas for today's release and S SC growers face a moderate risk. Unfortunately, spores from Sunday's release from Gainesville and Cuba were probably washed out last night and this morning over those same High Risk areas. There will be a much lesser threat from this source for Tuesday.

Cuba's source region presents a mild to moderate threat today. Some spores died during transport earlier today and the majority of those left are being rained out this afternoon north of Cuba. However, a shower in central Florida on Tuesday may wash out any live spores remaining, so that area is at weakly moderate risk of disease development. Some localized development near the source is also possible.

Conditions in the wild tobacco region of S Texas have become much less favorable for disease development and should stay that way through mid-week. No localized or long-range disease development is expected.

We are dropping the Tapachula, Mexico source region from the forecast rotation, which leaves us with the Papantla and Tepic regions in Mexico. These source areas should be rather benign threats today and Tuesday, as conditions are mostly unfavorable for either local or long-range disease development. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Gainesville, FL

N FL, S GA

• Gainesville, Florida
• Pinar del Rio, Cuba
• Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
• Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
• Uvalde, Texas
• Weslaco, Texas
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 28 April 1997.