N FL, GA, SE AL
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Sunday, April 27, 1997 - *** Serious Threats from Cuba and N Florida sources *** The weather has taken a nasty turn this weekend. Conditions all over the Southeast have become very favorable for blue mold development. There are two factors in our favor: Afternoon skies have been partly cloudy between Cuba and the U.S. mainland both Saturday and today, which has limited the chances for survivable transport from that source; and, though conditions for hundreds of miles around the Gainesville source are very favorable for disease development, that source is likely sending up far fewer spores than the Cuban source. The growers in the Greatest Danger are in northern Florida and Georgia. They are getting spores from both sources accompanied by excellent chances for washout.
Below is my considered appraisal of the combined risk situation for Saturday and Sunday. Bear in mind that on Saturday, spores from Gainesville were almost assuredly washed out completely by the 00Z timepost (8pm local). Also, spores released yesterday from Cuba were beset by sunshine and have now run headlong into widespread rainfall in Mississippi and Alabama. Some early washout of spores from the Gainesville source is likely today, but the other areas are still threatened. Finally, washout times/locations for today's Cuban release have yet to be played out. The ultimate risk to various growers will depend on where the showers or storms occur on Monday. (FYI: Taken independently, the scenario for today's Cuban release would warrant a Moderate Risk rating for any growers near the forecast path. The closer you are to the source, the higher your risk.)
Conditions along the east coast won't improve until mid-week, and winds will generally be from the south or southwest near the sources. I guarantee Monday's forecasts will again include some High Risk areas. *** Growers in any of the areas mentioned below should keep a keen eye open for any disease development!!! *** TK
SERIOUS THREATS: Gainesville, FL; Pinar del Rio, Cuba
N FL, GA, SE AL
Strongly Moderate Risk: SC, NC
Moderate Risk: Cen. FL, E VA, any growers in MS or AL (except SE AL)
Minimal to Slight Risk: TN, KY
Regional weather: Sunday, April 27 - The high pressure area that looked to be dominant on Friday shifted east and north on Saturday while the complex low pressure system in the plains was taking over. Unsettled weather plagued Florida and the deep South on Saturday and has now spread over the entire east coast. The only decent area has been the eastern Gulf of Mexico region between central Florida and Cuba. Texas is still rainy also. Temperatures are generally cool to mild in the southern and eastern U.S., warm in Cuba. The weather in Texas will begin to improve tomorrow, but the east coast from Florida northward will be cloudy and wet through Tuesday.
Saturday's Trajectories
Sunday's Trajectories
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 27 April 1997.
