FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, April 25, 1997 - The High over the SE U.S. will keep conditions mostly unfavorable for disease development in Florida and Cuba today and Saturday. However, growers in N Florida and S Georgia may be at moderate risk of localized development from Saturday's release, and there may be some localized development from today's release in Cuba. Conditions may become more favorable by Sunday for some long-range development, but the timing of the weather systems is uncertain at this point. Your Forecaster will monitor the situation closely.

Conditions in S Texas this weekend will remain favorable to very favorable for blue mold. Any disease development should remain localized, however. The scenario for Sunday's trajectories remains a little uncertain, but there is little danger of long-range development at this point, since so much widespread rain is forecast for Texas.

The Mexican sources are minimal threats for local and long-range development this weekend. Conditions will be mostly unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. TK

SERIOUS THREATS: None

HIGH RISK AREAS: None

• Gainesville, Florida
• Pinar del Rio, Cuba
• Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
• Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico
• Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
• Uvalde, Texas
• Weslaco, Texas
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 25 April 1997.