FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, April 21, 1997 - During the weekend, the Cuban threat didn't materialize. Sunday's trajectory started off very slow and there was a great deal of solar exposure to the spores. Today, however, the threat is back again. This source is a serious threat for spore releases both today and Tuesday. Conditions are fairly favorable for disease development, and growers in central and northern Florida are at moderate risk of disease development . Deposition will most likely occur tonight or on Wednesday. Some development near the source is possible, too.

The Mexican sources are tame the next two days. Conditions are mostly unfavorable for both local and long-range development of blue mold. Cloudier conditions near the Tapachula source may provide some opporunity for spore transport, but the risk is slight to growers along the forecast path.

Growers in the Ohio Valley owe their thanks to Mother Nature, who has intervened on their behalf. The trio of trajectories out of south Texas today lead right into Tennessee by Wednesday afternoon. However, any airborne spores got a large dose of sunshine all afternoon today, and there's nothing but rain in the forecasts all along the trajectory paths beginning tonight. Keep watching your local weather forecasts for situations like this one, in which a low pressure either forms or moves through the southern plains. If the timing is right, this is one of the main ways in which spores from Texas can be brought to your area. TK

SERIOUS THREATS: Pinar del Rio, Cuba

HIGH RISK AREAS: None

• Pinar del Rio, Cuba
• Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
• San Andres Tuxtla, Veracruz, Mexico
• Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico
• Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
• Uvalde, Texas
• Weslaco, Texas
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 21 April 1997.