FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, April 18, 1997 - The strong High pressure system building into the SE U.S. will be the largest influence on this weekend's forecasts. There is little threat from the Cuban source today and Saturday because of the fair weather near the source. Some threat to Florida may emerge by Sunday, but it's too early to tell at this point. Your Forecaster will keep you posted on the situation.

The sources on Mexico's east coast pose a problem for today's release. San Andres Tuxtla is a serious threat and Papantla is a moderate one. There is no long-range danger, but growing areas near San Andres Tuxtla are at High Risk today and the Papantla growing region is at moderate risk. Conditions become less favorable for the rest of the weekend, however, with production regions near both sources at slight risk for disease development Saturday and Sunday.

Conditions elsewhere in Mexico won't support much blue mold development. The Tapachula source is little threat this weekend, and the Tepic source may give rise to only localized disease development. Growers near Tepic are at slight risk today and Saturday, and perhaps moderate risk Sunday.

Conditions are still unsettled in the S Texas region. No long-range transport is expected out of Texas, but the threat remains for some localized blue mold development, especially from today's release. There's a moderate risk to the wild tobacco near the source areas today and Saturday. This decreases to a slight risk by Sunday as the weather becomes sunnier and drier. TK

SERIOUS THREATS: San Andres Tuxtla (Locally)

San Andres Tuxtla source region

• Pinar del Rio, Cuba
• Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
• San Andres Tuxtla, Veracruz, Mexico
• Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico
• Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
• Uvalde, Texas
• Weslaco, Texas
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 18 April 1997.