W Cuba; Mexico's Gulf Coast growing areas
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 - A loyal reader has informed your Forecaster that the risk assessments for Florida this past weekend may need some clarification or enhancement. These were more loosely arranged than I had intended, so I give them again below. The releases were from the Cuban source on the day listed; following them are the areas at risk. Bear in mind it usually takes a day or day-and-a-half for any spores to be transported the 400 to 600 miles (700 to 1000 km) from the source to the Florida growing areas for deposition.
Friday, April 11 -- HIGH: Florida, Georgia; Moderate: SC
Saturday, April 12 -- HIGH: Central Florida; Moderate/Slight: N Florida
Sunday, April 13 -- Slight: Central Florida
Monday, April 14 -- Slight: Central Florida
No long-range transport and deposition is expected from any of the blue mold sources today and Thursday. However, conditions are quite favorable for localized or short-range disease development at the Cuban source and for Mexico's Gulf Coast production regions. These areas are High Risk zones both Wednesday and Thursday. Elsewhere, some localized blue mold development is also possible on the wild tobacco in southern Texas and NE Mexico. The risk in southern Texas should be confined to areas south of the hill country. Sources near Tapachula and Tepic, Mexico will pose little threat today and tomorrow, as conditions are mostly unfavorable for disease development. Weather changes anticipated for the weekend will make conditions near the Cuban and southern Texas sources less favorable for blue mold. TK
SERIOUS THREATS: Local/Short-range: Pinar del Rio, Cuba; Papantla and San Andres Tuxtla, Mexico
W Cuba; Mexico's Gulf Coast growing areas
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 16 April 1997.