FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, April 11, 1997 - *** SERIOUS THREAT *** from the Cuban source this weekend. Trajectories indicate spores will be moving toward growing areas in Florida and Georgia from today's release and toward central and southern Florida from Saturday's spore release. Conditions will be mostly favorable for survivable transport and later deposition. HIGH RISK areas include Georgia and Florida today, central and southern Florida tomorrow.

Elsewhere, there is a chance of localized disease development near Papantla, Mexico, and around the sources in the S Texas region. No long-range transport is expected, but conditions are somewhat favorable for blue mold development near the sources. The sources in S and W Mexico are minimal threats this weekend. Conditions are mostly unfavorable for local or long-range disease development.

We have added a new source location, Corpus Christi, Texas. Blue mold has been active in the S Texas region and this new source will help improve our coverage of possible trajectories out of this area.

SERIOUS THREATS: Pinar del Rio, Cuba

Florida and Georgia for today's release; Central Florida for Saturday's release

• Pinar del Rio, Cuba
• Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
• San Andres Tuxtla, Veracruz, Mexico
• Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico
• Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
• Uvalde, Texas
• Weslaco, Texas
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 11 April 1997.