FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, May 29 - *** Changes in the weather will decrease threat from KY sources and increase threat of local and short-range development from N FL sources *** The situation in Kentucky during the early part of this week has been bad. Showers and t'storms swept through the state both Monday and Tuesday, so it's likely that many spores were deposited in central and eastern KY both days, but probably few elsewhere. Today's outlooks from the KY sources are different. Both forecasts are assessed at moderate risk, but observations early Wednesday evening indicate that the risk will be weakly moderate rather than strongly moderate. Much depends on the position of the formerly stationary front as a cooler, drier air mass pushes it south to the Gulf coast tonight. Tomorrow's threat from this area is much lower, as transport will be under sunny skies and in drier air, conditions much less favorable for survival. (Note: The trajectory starting points were changed for today's KY source forecasts to better centralize them)
The north Florida area will bear watching! Weather conditions mid-week have been and will continue to be favorable for disease development, with plenty of clouds, showers, and t'storms in the region. The risk has been limited to certain areas, though, because of the wind flows. Winds were from the west Tuesday and today, so the pathways went straight to the Atlantic in about 4 hours. In addition, there were some early afternoon showers around both days, so quick washout was highly likely. This constrained the greatest threat to the immediate source areas and farms very close to a line extending east from the above counties. On Thursday, the high risk areas will be to the SE of the source sites and then in the eastern half of central Florida. The growing regions in GA and the Carolinas probably won't be threatened by any spores from this area for the next few days.
The other source areas remain at low risk. The S TX sources are weak and flows are generally to the north, away from production areas. The Cuban sources, if sporulating (and I'm still assuming they are), are releasing spores that will travel under sunny conditions both days. This should kill the spores, which are heading away from the U.S. mainland. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: North Florida, #9
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 29 May 1996.