FORECAST DISCUSSION: *** Blue Mold may be widely distributed in Kentucky. High Risk of disease development all sections of Central and Eastern Kentucky this past weekend and early this week. New source site added: Paris, KY (NE of Lexington in Central KY) *** Monday, May 27 - The disease situation in Kentucky has rapidly turned bad. Dr. Nesmith in Kentucky reports that blue mold has been confirmed in outdoor or greenhouse float systems in the following counties: Hart, Hardin, and Meade in W central KY, and Mason, Bourbon, and Montgomery in central KY. Infected/infested plants have already been transplanted to the field from these places and sporulation has likely been occurring for the past 2 weeks, some of it heavy.
The threat of disease development from these sources over the past two weeks is difficult to determine. However, the most likely areas to have experienced effective deposition of spores include cental and eastern KY and the growing regions in the mountains of WV, VA, TN, and NC. Concerned parties in these areas should be examining their plants closely for signs of the disease.
Weather conditions turned very favorable over the weekend for disease development in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states and continues early this week. Central and eastern Kentucky are especially at risk. As long as the stationary front wavers about this region, conditions will likely remain favorable in many places.
Elsewhere, there was some slight threat from the N Florida source area over the weekend to locales in S and SE GA, but spores received heavy doses of harmful sunshine during the early transport hours, and it's likely the risk was minimal. Weather forecasts for today and Tuesday call for partly cloudy conditions over N Florida during midday and afternoon, so the risk should remain fairly low. There may be an increase in the threat later this week, since the front in the mid-Atlantic is forecast to push southward through the Carolinas; this would bring a general increase in both cloudiness and the chance of showers.
The Cuban and S TX sources were of low threat during the weekend. The situation remains similar today and tomorrow. Trajectories from S TX continue to go to the north and conditions along the route are mostly unfavorable for spore survival. The weather near the Cuban source sites has been quite sunny during the daytime hours, making survivable transport unlikely, and trajectories have not approached the Florida production areas.
All situations will continue to be monitored, and additional advisories will be posted if the threat of disease development escalates beyond anticipated levels. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: Munfordville, KY (#10); Paris, KY (#11)
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 27 May 1996.