FORECAST DISCUSSION: *** Growers in central KY need to be very attentive to the local/regional conditions *** Friday, May 24 - The situation in Kentucky is a good example of why one must pay attention to local conditions. There is a stationary front moving back and forth in the Ohio Valley region, and it is difficult to precisely forecast that wavering very far into the future. Since the KY source is sporulating, the main factors in the threat of disease development are the amount of cloud cover and the chance of precipitation. These factors are increased near the front, and the threat is greater; they are decreased away from the front, so the threat is lesser. We won't know the extent of the threat until the scenario unfolds tomorrow, but the risk is either low or moderate. The situation is complicated, so please read the Munfordville Outlook carefully.
Risks from the S TX area continue to be low. The Cuban sources don't threaten for several days, either. There haven't been any recent field reports from Cuba, but I believe that conditions have been favorable enough for the disease to maintain itself. Attempts are being made to find out something about the disease status, but until I hear differently, I will assume that some sporulation is taking place.
Trajectories from the N Florida sources are a little disquieting today and Saturday, as they travel over production areas. However, the large amounts of sunshine that spores are likely to receive should keep the risk minimal for the next couple of days. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: None
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 24 May 1996.