FORECAST DISCUSSION: *** High Risk Threat to Central Florida from Active Blue Mold in Cuba *** Tuesday, May 21 - The tropical disturbance currently dousing Florida with heavy rain and thunderstorms is creating a very favorable environment for disease development. Sporulation is likely at the Cuban sources, and any airborne spores will be swept northward under overcast skies by southerly winds associated with this weather system. Trajectories run right into central Florida, where NWS forecasts call for variably to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers or thunderstorms, so chances for effective deposition are good.
Northern Florida production areas aren't in much danger from the Cuban activity at this time for two reasons: Projected pathways turn sharply to the west during midday Wednesday, indicating shifting winds as the tropical system moves in time; and, heavy rain along the forecast tracks today and tonight will almost certainly wash out all the spores over the Gulf of Mexico or the southern 2/3 of Florida. However, today's trajectory from Columbia/Union counties meanders slowly west for a day before going over the ocean. Given the conditions in this region, the previously light activity is bound to pick up, and since the threat from the sources in Cuba can't be COMPLETELY discounted, this area is at moderate risk today.
Wednesday forecasts will be issued as usual late tomorrow afternoon. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: The Cuba sources, 3 and 8
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 21 May 1996.