FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, May 10 - The appearance of blue mold in N FL adds a new wrinkle to the overall situation. The front that has been hanging around the central U.S. will move toward the east coast during the weekend. Showers and t'storms will be popping up ahead of and near the front, and conditions MAY become favorable for local spreading near the source area and/or longer-range transport and effective deposition in GA or SC. At this time, Friday's threat is minimal and Saturday's danger is low, maybe moderate. Much depends on the extent of any showers near the N FL source area (for disease vitality and local spreading) and the amount of cloud cover on Saturday (for safe transport to other areas). Your Forecaster will monitor the situation; an additional forecast will be made tomorrow if the risk is significantly heightened.
In S TX, isolated showers/storms have brought some rain to various places during the week, so in these areas the disease may strengthen or at least stop weakening. There may be some short-range disease transfer away from the coastal sources as the front approaches, but no long-range transport to areas farther east is anticipated. The Cuban sources remain the strongest of the lot. Fortunately, the flow patterns are still pushing the trajectories W over the Gulf of Mexico. There is an outside chance that these sources may come into play during the weekend. Although this is doubtful, the situation will be watched to see how the specifics work themselves out. TK
***** Source notes: Now that we have disease on production tobacco, Blue Mold Forecast Management has decided to drop sources 7 and 8 from the tri-weekly reporting. Source 7 (Poza Rica, Veracruz, Mexico) typically threatens it's nearby neighbors and sometimes the wild tobacco to the north; Source 8 (Pinar del Rio, Cuba) is strong but spores released from there are well-accounted for by the trajectories generated for San Antonio de los Banos. As with the other unseen sources, your Forecaster will continue to generate trajectories and provide new forecasts if something significant develops. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: None
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 10 May 1996.