FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, May 1 - *** Still no reports of blue mold in production areas of the SE U.S. *** Indications are that the threat of disease spread on Monday and Tuesday from the Cuban sources did NOT materialize. Spores released Monday traveled under sunny conditions for a large part of the first day, and showers/storms ahead of the cold front almost assuredly washed out any spores over the Gulf of Mexico before they could reach N FL. Trajectories generated on Tuesday with updated data showed pathways that broke off to the SE before ever reaching FL, and radar images on Tuesday indicated rain showers near the source region during the midday hours, so washout was likely. Today's forecasts are more like what we've experienced much of this season: low risk scenarios, with survivable transport unlikely because of exposure to the sun. Recent field reports from the Uvalde, TX area state that the disease still appears weak, and little or no rain is expected in the next few days. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: None
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 1 May 1996.