FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, June 21, 1996
*** Field reports *** from SE NC indicate the disease is fairly weak in Robeson and Bladen Counties. It also turns out that blue mold has NOT been spotted in Sampson County. In central Kentucky, since so many locations are reporting presence of the disease, future trajectories and outlooks will be generated using Lexington as the source point.
*** Thursday update *** There was a mild threat of disease development very near the N Florida and SE Georgia source areas from Thursday's spore release. A shower in east central or southeast NC may have brought down some live spores, too, though this source is weak. The Kentucky source(s) were low risk on Thursday. Transport was under partly cloudy or mostly sunny skies, and although some spores probably survived, the threat to the mountain growers was minimized because the rain showers died down much before the spores would have reached the fields. However, if you DID receive rain after midnight Thursday night in the mountains, a few live spores were probably deposited.
*** Prepare for the heat wave *** coming this weekend to the eastern U.S. This is good news! The sunny skies and dry, hot conditions will be quite beneficial, suppressing disease development for at least a few days. The lone exception may be the N FL area, which expects partly cloudy weather with good chances for PM showers or storms. The trajectories for both days are threatening only to a small area near and to the east of the source, however, so the risk is minimized. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: NONE!
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 21 June 1996.