FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, June 19, 1996
*** New reports of blue mold in NC *** Blue mold has been spotted in Bladen and Sampson Counties in SE NC, and there's an unconfirmed report from Edgecombe County. Dr. Nesmith in Kentucky also reports that blue mold is common in over 30 counties in Central Kentucky. We will likely be revamping the source sites for the Outlooks soon to better reflect the changing situation.
*** Thursday's release from the KY sources *** poses a threat to areas NE of the source sites. There was adequate cloud cover for some spores to survive, and showers in the Ohio Valley region Thursday night probably brought down some live ones. Affected areas include central, southern, and eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and the west slopes of West Virginia. All the Kentucky sources would have been designated as moderate risks for Thursday.
*** Spores from the active blue mold in KY *** will be affecting farms east and southeast of the region in the next couple of days. Today's trajectories move over areas as far north as Ohio and PA and as far south as the NC/VA border. Tomorrow's pathways extend more east and southeast of the sources, going through the mountain growing areas and into the piedmont of the Carolinas by Friday morning. Sources are moderate risk for today's release and low for tomorrow's. The most probable areas for effective deposition are E KY, S Ohio, or W WV this evening, then N VA tomorrow afternoon. Spores released Thursday will likely suffer too much exposure to survive and threaten NC, but a shower tomorrow afternoon may deposit some in E or SE KY.
*** Early washout very likely today for the East Coast sources *** Tropical storm Arthur is producing a very good environment for disease development in eastern NC, and summertime showers and t'storms are prevalent today in the SE. Lumberton, NC is certainly a High Risk source today, seriously threatening SE NC and NE SC. The North Florida sources are High Risk also; they are influencing N FL and SE GA. The Hortense, GA source is less of a threat today than the other two. Fewer showers occurred in that region in the afternoon, and the trajectory moves out over the ocean pretty quickly. Thursday's trajectories from all three source locations lead NE and then east over the ocean Friday. Each source is a moderate risk. Airborne spores threaten the coastal regions of GA and S SC and the eastern 1/3 of NC (the coastal plains). *** Growers in NC beware !! *** Arthur's heavy rains will leave fields highly saturated, so the near-ground atmosphere will remain quite moist and humid. Until some drying occurs, conditions will be favorable for same-field and near-source disease development. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: Lumberton, NC; North Florida
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 19 June 1996.