FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, June 14, 1996
*** Trajectories are currently unavailable *** However, I will describe the weather and potential for disease development this weekend as best I can. A report on this weekend's activity will be included in Monday's forecast as usual.
A large, sprawling area of high pressure is sitting over the SE, mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley this afternoon. Winds are generally light and variable, and some showers and thunderstorms are being spawned in this very moist air mass this afternoon. A "cool" front is approching the Ohio Valley from the north and west and will move through that area sometime Saturday. This is called a 'cool' front because the air behind it is only slightly cooler than the air ahead of it. However, this cooler air IS a good bit drier than the muggy air currently present in the eastern U.S., so at least the Ohio Valley region will get a short break from the high humidities. As the front moves slowly southward this weekend, locations near the front will have a good chance of PM showers or storms, places behind the front will be mostly sunny and dry with light NE or E winds, and other areas south of the front will remain hot and humid with a slight chance of showers/t'storms. Highs will be in the 80's most places, 90's deep South.
The East Coast sources are rated High Risk for today. Clusters of showers and t'storms are moving through S NC, SC, and central and S GA. Winds are light and mostly from the SW. It's very likely that spores released from all of these sites are being deposited near and to the N or E of the release points. Similar conditions existed yesterday in SE GA and N FL, so this is the second day in a row of early washout for those areas. Trajectories Saturday and Sunday will likely be to the north and east of these sources. The N FL pathways will tend to meander a bit before moving NE, while light to moderate winds should move spores from SE GA and NC along at a steady pace. Skies are forecast to be partly cloudy or mostly sunny in the SE this weekend, so the risk of disease development is probably low to moderate in most areas. Growers near the source sites should be as attentive to the weather as possible! Some spores will survive transport under the forecast sky conditions.....and a mid-to-late afternoon shower will deposit some live ones on the fields.
The Kentucky sources present less threat this weekend than they have recently. Mountain growers should take a look at yesterday's Special Report if you haven't already! Today's conditions aren't good for disease development. Winds are light from the west and southwest. Transport is under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, so many spores will die from the exposure to sunshine, and the chances of effective deposition are slight. Weatherwise this weekend: warm through the period, highs in the 80's. Still a chance of scattered showers this evening, then on Saturday mostly sunny north and west, partly sunny south and east with a chance of t'storms. Winds will remain fairly light, veering from the southwest and west today to the northeast or east sometime tomorrow. Given the fair skies, light winds, and lack of forecast rainfall, it's likely that all these sources will present a low risk both Saturday and Sunday. As always, though, attention to your local conditions is imperative! TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: East Coast sources (for Friday's release): N FL; Hortense, GA; Lumberton, NC.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 14 June 1996.