FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, June 12, 1996
*** Source site added for Lancaster, KY *** A strong disease source has been identified in Garrard County, KY, so it's being added to the source list. Sporulation has been occurring for several days. Previous trajectories from this site would closely resemble those from Cynthiana or Monticello, and the risk assessment and threatened areas would be very similar.
Kentucky sources were a large threat yesterday and remain so today. Near-source rainout of spores has occurred both days. Trajectories yesterday went to the north or NNE; today's all go to the east across KY and through the VA's. Areas at high risk are those 50 miles or less from the sources, at moderate risk from 50 to 100 miles away, and low risk for beyond 100 miles. These sources present a moderate risk for Thursday's release to farms east of the sources. *** NOTE: Thursday's release may also affect growing areas in the southern Appalachian Mountains and the western Piedmont of NC *** Many factors are uncertain at this point. A Special Update will be posted on Thursday if this threat materializes.
The Lumberton, NC source is posing immediate problems. Yesterday's trajectory and scenario were very similar to today's: Many spores probably survived the early transport hours and were washed out between the 18Z and 00Z timeposts over central and eastern NC. Conditions will be somewhat favorable for Thursday's release, when the trajectory will be shifted further east.
Some isolated showers on Tuesday may have brought down some spores near the N Florida and GA sources. Trajectories today and tomorrow hug the coastline, and these sources are a moderate threat to fields nearby but lesser to other areas.
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: ALL Kentucky sources; Lumberton, NC
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 12 June 1996.