FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, June 10, 1996
*** Two new source sites in Wayne County, KY and Robeson County, NC *** Blue mold has been reported in Wayne County in southern Kentucky and in Robeson County in southeast North Carolina. The disease has also been spotted in Cumberland County, KY, which is about 30 miles west of Wayne County. Given the proximity of these locations to production areas, they are being added to the forecast list. Dropping into the background are Corpus Christi, TX and San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba. As with the others, any threat from the Texas or Cuba sources will be promptly reported.
*** Weekend Report *** Unfortunately, the weekend weather materialized very much as expected. Prime conditions for disease development were found in the Ohio Valley, Southeast, and mid-Atlantic region Friday through Sunday. Due to the sizable number of showers and thunderstorms present Friday and Saturday afternoons, it appears that nearly all spores from each source were washed out of the atmosphere within 9 to 12 hours after release. Sunday's trajectories were a little different, but again the spores from most of the sources were deposited sometime Sunday afternoon or evening. The following is a source-by-source synopsis of Sunday's activity:
Cuba: Enough spores probably survived transport after Sunday's release to cause trouble today in Florida. Yesterday's forecast track had the spore cloud center entering central Florida by mid-morning today local time, coinciding with the development of showers in the N Fl/central Fl area. The showers have persisted much of the day, so it's likely some spores were brought down.
North Florida: Spores released from N FL on Sunday morning were most likely deposited in NE FL or SE GA via early afternoon thunderstorms inland of Jacksonville, FL.
Hortense, GA: The iffiest of the lot. Spores released early in the morning were probably washed out near the source; those released later Sunday morning traveled north through NC and SC and probably came down Monday morning in western VA and WV. A shower during the graveyard shift may have washed some spores out over the NC mountains, but this is doubtful.
All Kentucky Sources: Trajectories from Elizabethtown, Cynthiana, and the new Wayne County location all flowed to the north and northwest, into areas of persistent, heavy showers. Spores likely were deposited in central KY, S and Central IA, and maybe SW Ohio.
Monday's Situation: Counter-clockwise flow around a surface low-pressure area centered in S IL will guide trajectories for the next two days. Forecast pathways lead off to the north and east from the sources in the SE; spores from the KY sources will tend to the north and then west. The greatest threat of effective deposition will typically occur during the afternoon and evening of the day of release, when showers are most likely and most spores are still alive. Conditions will remain quite favorable for blue mold development in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states and moderately favorable in the Southeast. The unsettled weather in the east will remain through mid-week, though some places in the SE will see fewer clouds and/or a decreased chance of PM showers/t'storms. High temperatures will be in the 70's in the Ohio Valley and NE U.S. with 80's and some 90's mid-Atlantic and SE. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: ALL Kentucky sources; North Florida; Hortense, GA.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 10 June 1996.