FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, June 3 - *** Moderate risk of disease development in areas near to and north of the Kentucky sources during the weekend *** The first of two fronts to pass through the Ohio Valley region brought clouds and showers Saturday night and Sunday. Winds were out of the south ahead of the front, so areas north of the sources were more at risk than elsewhere from Saturday's release. Rain showers moved into the region later Saturday, so spores were likely airborne for a number of hours before possible washout, and may have moved far enough north to be away from most growing areas when finally brought down. Sunday's weather was generally favorable for blue mold development also. However, we got a break in that the main lines of showers and t'storms came over the infected areas during the morning spore release hours. Effective release was likely hindered by the precipitation and very high humidities for the first half of the spore release period (approx. 8am to 10:30 am local time) or longer. Unfortunately, this also means that the spores that did get released were probably rained out soon afterward, near the source...........The other source sites didn't pose much threat the past few days. Either the trajectory was away from growing areas or the weather was too sunny for safe transport, or both.
The early-week threats are to N FL/S GA (from the N Florida source) and to north-central and northeastern KY and SE Ohio (from the KY sources). All these situations are assessed a moderate risk. I will follow the situation as it progresses and upgrade the risks if necessary. The one I'm watching closest is tomorrow's release from the N Florida sources.
The Cuban and S TX source areas won't affect any growing areas over the next 2 days. Texas trajectories are to the north, into the plains, and the High over Florida is pushing the Cuban spores off to the west or southwest. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: None
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 3 June 1996.