FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, July 15, 1996
*** Weekend Update *** Even after Hurricane Bertha moved out of North Carolina Saturday morning, conditions remained favorable for disease development Saturday and Sunday. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were the rule in the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachian Mountains, and eastern NC, with scattered showers and thunderstorms active both days in these areas. Winds were from the SW each day near the source regions. The effects of the hurricane and the widespread showers has been to saturate the ground in many growing areas, leaving standing water in some places as well. This has created a very favorable ground-level environment for blue mold development, increasing the chances of fog, dew, and nighttime sporulation. Growers near to, north, and east of the source areas should pay close attention to their fields for signs of the disease this week.
*** No forecast trajectories are available today. *** However, the following situational synopsis should serve as a good guideline for each source area and the region(s) they may affect. Full outlooks with maps will be produced when possible, and in the meantime I will try to provide as much information as I can. For today, ALL SOURCES ARE HIGH RISK FOR LOCALIZED DEVELOPMENT, due to the extensive cloud cover and rainy weather in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. Early washout is highly likely. Spore release was likely hindered in those disease locations that received mid-to-late morning showers, and any spores that were released probably didn't travel far. TK
*** The Kentucky source region is highly active at the present time. *** Dr. Nesmith reports that sporulation is as strong as he has seen it. Winds today in central Kentucky are from the southwest shifting to west as a front passes through the area. If you are a grower in central, east, or northeast KY, and you received any rain past 8 or 9 AM today, you likely have some newly deposited spores in your fields. The weather is clearing during the day today.....and the forecast for the next few days is dry with a general warming trend. Highs 85 to 90 today, lows in the 60's tonight.
*** The sources in the burley-growing areas of the Southern Appalachians *** are High Risk today also. It's cloudy and windy with a very good chance of showers or thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's. Areas under a threat from this region today include the S Appalachian Mntns, extreme SW VA, S WV, and the western foothills of NC and VA. After the favorable conditions today, the weather will improve for tomorrow and the rest of the week. The forecast for Tuesday calls for partly cloudy skies and highs in the 80's.
*** Threat from the eastern NC sources *** is concentrated in the coastal plains of NC and S VA. Highs in the upper 80's today with a good chance of showers/t'storms this afternoon and evening. Rain ending sometime after midnight. Conditions less favorable for blue mold development Tuesday. Skies will be partly cloudy .....with a 20% to 30% chance of afternoon showers remaining for the immediate coastal counties.
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: ALL for Localized Disease Development
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 15 July 1996.