***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, July 10, 1996
*** New blue mold reports *** Blue mold has been confirmed recently in several other mountain counties of North Carolina and Georgia. In addition to the Yancey County source added Monday, the disease is present in Watauga, Alleghany, and Madison Counties of NC and Towns County, GA. Other fields in the burley-growing region likely have some infection as well. Disease activity levels are generally low, though some fields have lesions on 1/4 or up to 1/2 of the plants.
*** Changing of source sites *** The Towns County area is being added as a source with trajectories originating in the city of Young Harris, GA. Since this addition gives us very effective trajectory coverage from the southern Appalachian Mountains (3 source areas), there won't be any forecasts produced specifically for the Watauga and Alleghany source area at this time. Users will be able to track spores released from this area by looking at the NE TN and Yancey County, NC trajectories and considering their outlooks. Elsewhere, the north Florida and SE Georgia source areas are being dropped from the forecast rotation. Harvesting is in progress in this region, and most areas that this region would threaten already have some blue mold present. However, as with the other source sites that have been dropped, your Forecaster will monitor the situation and produce outlooks for these locations if it becomes necessary.
*** What about BERTHA?! *** Though the exact track of the hurricane is not known, it now appears certain that Bertha will be strongly affecting the weather of the coastal plains and eastern piedmont sections of the Carolinas and Georgia Thursday afternoon and Friday. Late afternoon forecasts today indicate that Bertha will be turning to the north sometime tonight. Landfall of the eye somewhere in southeast North Carolina is anticipated to occur very late Thursday night. Conditions will be very favorable for disease development Thursday. The eastern NC sources are High Risk for tomorrow's release, so the trajectories and associated outlooks for these two source areas will be for THURSDAY. The main threat is to growers in SE NC and the coastal plains of SC. Much depends on the path the storm takes, and an extra outlook may be produced tomorrow if the situation warrants it.
*** The Kentucky and mountain source regions *** are non-threatening for the next couple of days. There is a small risk of some localized development today in the mountain areas, but if you didn't have any rain in the late morning or early afternoon today you are in very little danger. Hurricane Bertha won't be coming far enough inland to affect the mountains or Ohio Valley......but if you look to the east later Thursday and Friday, you'll be able to see the high cirrus clouds from the outflow at the top of the storm. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: Northeast and Southeast NC
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 10 July 1996.