***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, July 8, 1996
*** Weekend Report *** Friday and Saturday, the Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina sources were low risk. Skies were mostly sunny and there was little (if any) rain until Sunday afternoon in the Ohio Valley, so most spores were killed during transport and had little opportunity to be deposited. The showers that sprang up Sunday in the Ohio Valley may have spread a few surviving spores to areas east of the sources, so these source regions were a more moderate risk yesterday. The Florida and Georgia source locations saw more general cloudiness and shower activity. Therefore, they were moderate risks most of the weekend, with the main threat concentrated in those fields near and to the E and NE of the source regions.
*** NEW SOURCE - Yancey County, NC *** Paul Shoemaker of the NC Cooperative Extension Service has advised that a confirmed case of blue mold was found in Bad Creek, NC, northeast of Burnsville. This site is being added to the source list; however, only a handful of sporulating lesions were found in a shaded area of one field. The discovery was made on July 5.
*** High Risk sources today! *** The central KY and NE TN source regions pose problems for today's release. Abundant cloud cover this morning and early afternoon protected airborne spores and there have been many showers this afternoon and evening in the region, so some live spores are being deposited. The NC sources are threatening NE NC and SE VA, though the threat is not as great as that presented by the KY and TN sources. GA and FL sources are low risk today. For Tuesday's release, the main threat is to the mountain growers (from KY and TN) and to production areas in the northern half of NC (from TN and the new Yancey County source). All these sources are rated moderate risks for Tuesday. This is largely due to the general nature of the weather forecasts, which call for partly cloudy skies and a reasonably good chance of showers or thunderstorms. Thus, there's no real way to tell how much cloudiness will exist and where the rains will take place. The situation will be monitored, however, and an update produced should the conditions warrant. Coastal sections of GA and SC are also under a moderate threat of disease development for tomorrow's release. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: Central Kentucky, NE Tennessee
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 8 July 1996.