***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, July 3, 1996
*** Lots of News today! *** Reports of blue mold from Tennessee.....the computer model producing the trajectories has been upgraded.......there's an addition to the Homepage.....and the outlooks for the Holiday Weekend!
*** Blue mold has been reported in eight counties in NE Tennessee *** Confirmed blue mold is present in the burley growing areas of Tennessee north and east of Knoxville. This area will be added as a source location with the origin of the trajectory forecasts in Jefferson City, TN (Jefferson County). The disease is active and spores from this area will threaten growers in western NC, western VA, West Virginia, and southeast Kentucky. This represents an escalation in danger beyond that posed by the sources in Kentucky, because it brings these mountain crops within range of an average afternoon's transport, opening the greater possibility of live spores being effectively deposited on previously unaffected fields by PM showers or thunderstorms.
*** "Substantially more accurate trajectories" *** are now available for our forecasts and outlooks. The computer model used to generate the forecast trajectories has been improved by its designers at Air Resources Laboratories, a branch of NOAA. The confidence ratings for our forecast pathways should improve, and the graphics are easier to read. Don't let the change in the longitude markers on the maps throw you off! You'll notice they are all negative numbers....which simply means that these meridians are to the west (i.e., left) of the 0 degree longitude line that runs through England. This is a common convention used to specify 'west' and 'east' with numbers rather than suffixes. Otherwise, the graphics aren't substantially different.
*** A New map *** of the counties in North Carolina that are reporting blue mold is being added today to the Homepage. The counties affected are colored in and listed below the map, which will be updated periodically as the disease situation changes. Later, we hope to be able to color-code the map to indicate the severity of the disease in a given county.
*** Outlooks for the next five days *** are available. The Current Forecasts will have the outlooks for July 3rd and 4th.....and an outlook for the remainder of the Holiday weekend can be found below. IN GENERAL, remember that a forecast of partly cloudy to partly sunny skies near the source region, coupled with a 30% or better chance of afternoon showers/t'storms, will frequently result in an assessment of MODERATE Risk for that source, with the threatened areas being those near to and downwind of the source area. As always, one MUST be attentive to the local conditions!!
*** Holiday weekend outlook *** The N Florida and SE GA sources are moderate risks for disease development during the weekend. Forecasts are for partly cloudy skies and a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers. Any development will be localized....and the best chance for that happening is probably Saturday or Sunday. The North Carolina sources are low risks throughout the weekend. The expected sunny, dry conditions will be unfavorable for survivable transport and later deposition. The Kentucky and Tennessee source areas will be low risks on Friday. The threat from the KY sources will increase Saturday and Sunday, becoming moderate by Sunday as a chance of showers enters into the forecast. The TN source are should remain low risk. Partly sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast, with no mention of rain. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: None
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 3 July 1996.