***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, July 1, 1996
*** Weekend Update *** Weather and transport scenarios went much as expected Friday and Saturday with most sources low to perhaps moderate risks as stated in Friday's forecasts. On Sunday, the NC sources presented a moderate risk to the central and northern coastal plains of NC and the tidewater region of SE VA. Areas of concern were east of I-95 and north and east of I-40.
*** Early this week *** the Kentucky sources are moderate risks. The threat today is to areas of central and eastern KY, any places that are receiving a late afternoon or evening shower. Any disease development will likely be near-source since the winds are light. Tuesday's trajectories move due east during the day, slower early but more quickly in the later afternoon. Again, the threatened areas are in central and eastern KY.
*** The North Carolina sources *** are low risks for today's release and moderate for Tuesday's release. Growers in eastern NC and SE VA are the ones threatened, and the forecast pathways, trajectory weather, and confidence rating are for TUESDAY's release. Trajectories for the Georgia and north Florida source areas are off the coast both days before turning NE. Both these sites are rated low risks today and Tuesday. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: None
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 1 July 1996.