FORECAST DISCUSSION: Thursday, August 8, 1996
*** This is the last set of forecasts/outlooks for the season *** unless something very significant happens. Blue mold is present in a large portion of the production areas, and in most instances spores are being carried over regions where the disease already exists. We hope the forecasts have been useful, and we are also hopeful for the opportunity to continue them next year!
*** There is a new source site *** for this last set of outlooks. It's for south-central Wisconsin with a trajectory starting point of Madison. Blue mold has probably been present in this area for a couple of weeks, during which time some disease development may have taken place. The threatened areas are near the source and generally north or east of south-central Wisconsin. Conditions during the next few days are unfavorable for development due to the large area of high pressure controlling the weather in the upper Midwest. This will keep skies mostly sunny and the chance of rain to a bare minimum.
*** The latter-week Outlooks *** follow the eastward progress of the cold front approaching from the west. The cloudy, stormy weather ahead of the front provides a favorable environment for blue mold development, while the sunnier, drier conditions behind the front hinder it. The Kentucky and Ontario sources are High Risk today, but the danger level drops substantially for Friday and beyond. The southern Appalachian Mountain area is the most threatened today and Friday. Conditions are pretty favorable for near-source development both days. The eastern NC source areas begin the period as Low risks, but the threat from these regions will increase Friday and Saturday. TK
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: Kentucky and S Ontario today; Mountain sources Friday
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 8 August 1996.