FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, August 2, 1996
*** Outlook for Thursday's release *** The most threatening sources for Thursday's release were the E NC ones, winds were strong from the SW and conditions were very favorable for disease development. Spores from the High Risk SE NC area were likely washed out over the southern and central coastal plains of NC. The mountain sources were all moderate risks. Spores from the central NC mountains tracked slowly eastward, while those released from the other mountain source areas moved generally SE. Conditions were partially favorable for development. Live spores may have been deposited by afternoon or evening showers occurring in the mountains of NC and NW SC, or in the central and western piedmont of NC. The KY source region rated a low risk yesterday. Lots of sunshine made surviving the transport difficult on winds from the NW, and there weren't many showers around the area of the forecast pathway.
*** New source site *** Delhi, in southwestern Ontario, Canada, just north of Lake Erie, is being added as a trajectory starting point. It should be interesting to see where the winds take the spores! Temperatures given in the weather forecasts will be in degrees Celcius for our Canadian friends, so for our interested observers in the States: There are 9 Farenheit degrees for every 5 Celcius degrees. 10C = 50F, 20C = 68F, 30C = 86F, etc.
*** The unsettled weather *** along the east coast may give the disease an opportunity to develop in other areas. Source regions are mostly Moderate risks this weekend, with the SE NC area the most troublesome. It's a High Risk source today, and at least Moderate for Saturday. The threat from the Kentucky and Canadian sources will diminish over time this weekend as their weather will be sunnier and drier than that of the other source regions.
HIGH-RISK SOURCES: Lumberton, NC (SE NC)
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 2 August 1996.