FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, April 29th - Weekend weather conditions were generally good for disease suppression, but the situation is a little different today. There is a moderate risk of disease spread from the Cuban sources (sources 3 and 8), into N FL/S GA today and central FL tomorrow. The TX coastal blue mold source (Corpus Christi) also poses a moderate risk today. While the risk in TX is for localized or short-range transport, the threat from the Cuban sources is a little more serious, since it involves tobacco production areas. At this time the assessment for Tuesday's scenario is rated 'moderate' because the forecast tracks go only somewhat close to known target areas. However, much depends on the exact behavior of the frontal system approaching the SE. Should the situation change, I will post a special forecast tomorrow afternoon. After the front passes, conditions will improve for at least several days. TK

HIGH-RISK SOURCES: None

• Source 01: Corpus Christi, TX
• Source 02: Uvalde, TX
• Source 03: San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba
• Source 04: Comitan, Chiapas, Mexico
• Source 05: Las Varas, Nayarit, Mexico
• Source 06: Tegucigalpa, Honduras
• Source 07: Poza Rica, Veracruz, Mexico
• Source 08: Pinar del Rio, Cuba

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 29 April 1996.