25 March 2010
North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, March 25
Regional Weather
(Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf)
Two frontal systems will impact the region over the next 5 days. Sunny to partly cloudy skies in the eastern half of the region will give way to clouds and showers later today and tonight, as the first system that is already affecting the western areas moves east. Improving weather late Friday as the system exits, followed by a lull in the action on Saturday. On Sunday and Monday ... the second system will move through the eastern U.S.. This one will be stronger and move slower, with greater rainfall amounts expected than those of the Thursday/Friday feature. Warm on Thursday with highs mostly in the 70's and 80's and lows in the 50's and 60's. Cooling behind the first system will linger through the rest of the forecast period. Highs mostly in the 60's and 70's with some 80's in FL, lows ranging from the 30's to 50's.
OUTLOOK
*** Transport events for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be monitored closely due to the potential impact of Saturday's event and the uncertainty in the Sunday and Monday events. Forecasts will be updated if necessary. ***
Thursday and Friday:
Thursday's and Friday's transport events move ENE and east, respectively. Threat to U.S. growing areas is Low. Low Risk to tobacco in the U.S. growing areas from these transport events.
Saturday:
As occurred in last Thursday's forecast, this event is the one to watch. It is very similar to last Saturday's event in the track, a bit slower in the timing (crossing northern FL late Sunday evening), and likely a category less favorable in the conditions. Weakly Moderate Risk for tobacco in northern FL / extreme southern GA for this event. Low Risk otherwise.
Sunday and Monday: There is more uncertainty in these events than normal ... as the forecast models are having trouble regarding the speed of the second weather system. At this time, it appears neither of these events poses much threat to U.S. tobacco, though that may change as the weather evolves. Low Risk to U.S. tobacco plants for Sunday and Monday. This situation will be monitored closely.
TK
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