18 March 2010
North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, March 18
Regional Weather
(Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf)
Weak system moving off the Southeast coast today; mostly sunny, and warming, Friday and Saturday; strong cold front traversing the region Sunday and Monday. Variable clouds most areas Thursday with showers in parts of the eastern Carolinas. A few light showers possible for parts of the interior also. Highs mostly in the 60's today, warming to the 70's Friday and 70's/80's Saturday under mostly sunny skies. Sunday and Monday a much stronger weather feature will impact the region. A cold front ... anchored to a low pressure area that will move through the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic ... will sweep through the Southeast. Nearly all areas will see rain. Amounts will generally be in the 1/2" to 1 inch range. Cooler under the clouds and rain on Sunday and Monday, then even cooler still after the frontal passage with temperatures dropping to near or below seasonal norms.
OUTLOOK
Thursday and Friday:
Thursday's moves southeast as shown below. Friday's moves northwest and then northeast but will cross land west of the GA/FL region and will likely not encounter rainfall. Low Risk to tobacco in the U.S. growing areas from these events.
Saturday:
This is the episode to watch. The event tracks initially northwest, curves to the right overnight, then scoots rapidly northeast Sunday ahead of the cold front ... crossing the northern FL region Sunday evening. Event arrival over land coincides with some rainfall. Sky conditions are a key factor, and will be changing during the event. It will likely be sunny to partly cloudy near the source on Saturday, with increasing clouds Saturday night and mostly cloudy skies by Sunday. Some rainfall is expected over the northeastern Gulf prior to event arrival in northern FL, so part of anything airborne will likely be deposited over water.
Overall ... there is uncertainty here regarding the disease situation in Cuba, and with the expected weather. And, as with last weekend's weather system, there may be some change in timing which could effect the conditions surrounding this event. There appears to be a mix of factors at this time. Moderate Risk to tobacco in the northern FL region for Saturday's event. This event will be monitored closely. An update will be posted if there is a significant change in the situation.
Sunday and Monday:
Sunday's and Monday's transport events move to the ENE and south, respectively, resulting in little to no threat to other regions. Low Risk to tobacco in the U.S. growing areas from these events.
TK
Current Sources:
