North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
* Welcome to the TBM forecasts for 2010! The 2010 season begins with the monitoring of transport events out of western Cuba.
Forecast Summary: Thursday, March 11
Regional Weather (Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf of Mexico): Complex weather system impacting the region Thursday and Friday. Cooler, drier conditions Saturday through Monday. A disturbance is moving across the central and eastern sections of the Southeast today accompanied by heavy rain, showers, and thunderstorms. All this is in advance of the main frontal system to the west ... which will bring another round of unsettled weather to the region on Friday. These surface systems are being driven by a large cut-off Low in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The cut-off Low will shift through the Ohio/TN Valleys and across the mid-Atlantic with time. Some instability showers are therefore possible toward the mountains and parts of the Carolinas into the weekend, while the rest of the region cools and drier. Temperatures will run in the 60's and 70's most locations Thursday and Friday with some 80's in FL. Readings will cool over the weekend, mostly 50's and 60's with some 70's in FL.
OUTLOOK
Thursday through Monday:
Thursday's transport event is somewhat troubling, as the weather system passing through the Southeast is attempting to draw anything airborne to the north. However, whether the forecast track is across central FL (as indicated in the link below) or perhaps farther to the north (possible, though less likely), rainfall over the Gulf should be plentiful enough to wash out any airborne spores before they can impact the U.S. growing areas. In addition, transport conditions for Thursday's transport event are mixed, which also tempers the risk. Friday's transport event moves ENE over southern FL. Events from Saturday through Monday push to the south or southwest after the wind shift behind the main cold front. Low Risk to tobacco in the U.S. growing areas Thursday through Monday.
TK