Cucurbit Tobacco Soybean

6 September 2009

North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast


***
Forecast Notes - September 6: This will be our last forecast for the 2009 Disease Season. ***

Forecast Summary: Sunday, September 6, 2009

Regional Weather (Eastern U.S.): Unsettled weather from the mid-South northward through the Ohio Valley both days; rain moving inland from the coast in the lower mid-Atlantic; mostly dry otherwise. The stalled front along the south Atlantic coast has not exited the weather picture as earlier anticipated. It remains ... and low pressure is expected to develop along it and bring some showers to the lower mid-Atlantic coastal plains on Monday. Meanwhile ... an upper-level disturbance lies west of the Appalachians. This feature combined with a trough at the surface will trigger mainly afternoon / evening showers or storms in the east-central U.S. early this week. The center of high pressure across the North will shift farther eastward with time. Highs in the 70's and 80's, lows mostly 50's and 60's.

OUTLOOK

Sunday and Monday:

Transport events move generally northwest on Sunday; west or southwest are favored directions on Monday though the Ohio Valley events will track north. Conditions will be favorable west of the Mountains, mixed near the mountains, and unfavorable (Sunday) to mixed (Monday) for points farther east.

Sunday: HIGH Risk for tobacco in eastern KY, southeast IN, and southern OH. Moderate Risk for northeast TN, southwest VA, and northwest NC. Low Risk otherwise.

Monday: HIGH Risk for tobacco in eastern KY and southern OH. Strongly Moderate Risk for northeast NC, southeast VA, and northeast TN. Moderate Risk for northwest and north-central NC and southeast PA. Low Risk otherwise.

TK

Current Sources:

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