North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
*** The 2009 forecast season will begin with the monitoring of transport events out of western Cuba. While we do not have any information regarding the presence or absence of blue mold in Cuba, in 9 of the last 13 years the first outbreaks in the United States have been the result of airborne transport of blue mold spores from Cuba to the growing regions of northern FL or southern GA. ***
Forecast Summary: Tuesday, March 31
Regional Weather (Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf of Mexico): Unsettled weather continues over the Southeast / northern Gulf; mostly dry southern Gulf. A cold front is moving into the Southeast from the west, while a former stationary front in the FL straits is rising north as a warm front. This combination will cause rainy weather during the midweek period for most of the region, especially for the eastern Gulf Coast / northern FL / southern GA. Highs in the 70's and 80's, lows in the 50's and 60's.
OUTLOOK
Tuesday and Wednesday: The situation for the midweek transport events is very similar to that of last Thursday through Saturday.
Transport events are moving to the northeast both Tuesday and Wednesday. Preliminary runs for Thursday's transport event show movement to the northeast also. Sky conditions near the source region are unfavorable for survivable transport on Tuesday. Similar sky conditions are expected on Wednesday, with Thursday's uncertain at this time. Dispersion runs of the HYSPLIT atmospheric transport model, as well as the trajectories, show a possibility of live airborne spores travelling over northern FL / southeast GA during each event. These transport events would coincide with favorable conditions for deposition as they move over land.
Growers in many areas have plants in plant beds or greenhouses at this time. Transport events for the next two or three consecutive days could impact the same growing areas of the United States, which historically is a warning sign for increased chances of epidemic spread. Therefore, despite the lack of significant cloud cover seen (and expected) over the Gulf during these events, risk predictions will be raised to higher levels than they would otherwise.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Moderate Risk for tobacco plants in southeast GA and northern FL. Low Risk otherwise. This situation will be closely monitored. Long-range similations indicate the possibility for more events to move northeast toward the U.S. later this week.
TK