North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
*** The 2009 forecast season will begin with the monitoring of transport events out of western Cuba. While we do not have any information regarding the presence or absence of blue mold in Cuba, in 9 of the last 13 years the first outbreaks in the United States have been the result of airborne transport of blue mold spores from Cuba to the growing regions of northern FL or southern GA. ***
Forecast Summary: Sunday, March 29
Regional Weather (Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf of Mexico): Scattered showers eastern Gulf Sunday; benign weather Monday. The trailing cold front associated with the vigorous storm system that moved through the Southeast Friday and Saturday will swing across the southeastern Gulf region today, then turn stationary from the Bahamas to the Yucatan on Monday. Scattered showers will occur near the front. Dry otherwise today and Monday. Cooler temperatures behind the front, moderating into early next week. Highs in the 70's and 80's, lows in the 40's and 50's mainland to low 60's southeastern Gulf.
OUTLOOK
Saturday review: Transport events from the Thursday through Saturday period went much as expected. Sky conditions in the southeastern Gulf were generally unfavorable; however, a possibility of live spore transport was present.
Sunday and Monday: Sunday's transport event moves sluggishly near the source, presenting little danger to other areas. Monday's event moves northwest toward southwest AL / far western FL peninsula, away from production areas. Low Risk to tobacco plants in the U.S. growing areas Sunday and Monday.
Next week: Longer-range model simulations indicate a return to southerly winds. Transport events will be tracking north to northeast in many cases. There is a distinct possibility of increased risk to tobacco plants in the U.S. growing areas. Details will need to be resolved in the short-term time frames.
TK