North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
*** The 2009 forecast season will begin with the monitoring of transport events out of western Cuba. While we do not have any information regarding the presence or absence of blue mold in Cuba, in 9 of the last 13 years the first outbreaks in the United States have been the result of airborne transport of blue mold spores from Cuba to the growing regions of northern FL or southern GA. ***
Forecast Summary: Thursday, March 26
Regional Weather (Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf of Mexico): Mostly dry eastern Gulf; unsettled, rainy weather for the mainland Southeast. A frontal system has become stalled over the mainland Southeast, while it will linger for the next several days. This brings clouds, showers, and rain to the region. Much of the FL peninsula and the eastern Gulf will remain sunny to partly cloudy and dry, however. Highs in the 70's and 80's, lows in the 50's and 60's.
OUTLOOK
Thursday through Saturday: Transport events are moving to the northwest Thursday and north on Friday. Preliminary runs for Saturday's transport event show movement to the northeast. Sky conditions near the source region are unfavorable for survivable transport on Thursday. Similar sky conditions are expected Friday and Saturday. Dispersion runs of the HYSPLIT atmospheric transport model, as well as the trajectories, show a possibility of live airborne spores travelling over southern GA, northern FL, and the Carolinas during Thursday's and Friday's transport events, and northern FL / southern GA for Saturday's event. These transport events would coincide with mixed to favorable conditions for deposition as they move over land.
Growers in many areas have plants in plant beds or greenhouses at this time. Transport events for the next two or three consecutive days could impact the same growing areas of the United States, which historically is a warning sign for increased chances of epidemic spread. Therefore, despite the lack of significant cloud cover seen (and expected) over the Gulf during these events, risk predictions will be raised to higher levels than they would otherwise.
Thursday through Saturday: Moderate Risk for tobacco plants in southern GA and northern FL. Weakly Moderate Risk for plants in the Carolinas. Low Risk otherwise. This situation will be closely monitored, both for these current events and those associated with a frontal system expected to approach the Southeast early next week.
TK