North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 15 July: First report from the southern Appalachian Mountains in 2008. Blue mold has been discovered in a field in Washington County in the mountain empire of southwestern VA, near the town of Glade Spring. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. This source will be added to the forecasts. ***
Forecast Summary: Tuesday, July 22
Regional Weather (Southeast / mid-Atlantic States): Sunny and Hot with isolated to scattered showers Tuesday; scattered to numerous showers on Wednesday. TS Cristobal exited the scene with little fanfare over the weekend. TS (soon to be Hurricane) Dolly will impact the western Gulf region. For our areas of interest ... Sunny to partly cloudy Tuesday with isolated to scattered showers developing in the lower Southeast, upper mid-Atlantic, and perhaps part of the Carolinas. A cold front now stretched across the northern tier of states will be swinging into the mid-Atlantic / TN Valley on Wednesday, inducing more numerous showers and increased cloudiness, especially for the mid-Atlantic states (PA down through NC).
OUTLOOK
Tuesday and Wednesday
Long-range transport and deposition possible from several areas the next two days.
GA / FL sources: Transport events move northeast each day. Conditions will be mixed for survivable transport and deposition, with some long-range transport possible. Tuesday and Wednesday: Moderate Risk for tobacco in southern GA and northern FL each day. Weakly Moderate Risk for northeast SC and eastern NC. Low Risk otherwise.
Eastern VA source: This source is quite weak. Events move northeast today and Wednesday. Too much solar exposure today for any long-range threat. Conditions favorable on Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday: Strongly Moderate Risk for tobacco in eastern VA on Wednesday. Moderate Risk for MD and southeast PA. Low Risk otherwise Tuesday and Wednesday.
Southeast PA source: Transport events move northeast each day, with Wednesday's very slow in that direction. Tuesday: Moderate Risk for tobacco in southeast PA and southern New England. Wednesday: HIGH Risk for tobacco in southeast PA. Moderate Risk for southern New England. Low Risk otherwise.
Washington County, VA source: Transport events move northeast today with some long-range transport possible. Wednesday's event moves slowly east and southeast of the source, under favorable conditions. Tuesday: Moderate Risk for tobacco in southwest VA, southern WV, northeast TN, northwest NC, MD, and southeast PA. Wednesday: HIGH Risk to tobacco in southwest VA, southern WV, northeast TN, and northwest NC. Low Risk otherwise.
TK