North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 15 July: First report from the southern Appalachian Mountains in 2008. Blue mold has been discovered in a field in Washington County in the mountain empire of southwestern VA, near the town of Glade Spring. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. This source will be added to the forecasts. ***
Forecast Summary: Saturday, July 19
Regional Weather (Southeast / mid-Atlantic States): Tropical Storm Cristobal moving northeast along the coastal Carolinas; showers northern mid-Atlantic Sunday and Monday; mostly dry and hot elsewhere. Having formed from a low pressure area off the northern FL coast earlier this week, TS Cristobal is now east of Charleston and will be moving northeast along the coast today and Sunday, pulling offshore on Monday. Heavy rain is expected along the immediate coast with some scattered showers inland the next two days. A cold front draped across the northern U.S. will cause some scattered showers in the northern mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the next several days. Elsewhere ... expect sunny to partly cloudy skies, isolated showers at best, and hot summertime temperatures. Highs mostly in the 90's and lows mostly in the 70's, with 80's / 60's in some cooler locations.
OUTLOOK
Saturday through Monday
GA / FL sources: Transport events move slowly east / ENE each day. Conditions will be mostly unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Saturday through Monday: Weakly Moderate Risk for tobacco in southern GA and northern FL each day. Low Risk otherwise.
Eastern VA source: This source is quite weak. Events move northeast today, ENE Sunday, east on Monday. Threat should be limited to nearby areas. Saturday and Sunday: Weakly Moderate Risk to tobacco near the source in eastern VA. Monday: Low Risk to tobacco near the source and along the forecast pathway.
Southeast PA source: Transport events move northeast the next two days, east on Monday. Unfavorable conditions are dominant on Saturday, mixed conditions expected on Sunday, mostly favorable conditions for Monday. Saturday: Low Risk to tobacco. Sunday: Moderate Risk for tobacco in southeast PA and southern New England. Monday: Strongly Moderate Risk for southeast PA and northern MD. Low Risk otherwise Sunday and Monday.
Washington County, VA source: Transport events move SSE to southeast each day. Conditions will be generally unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition, though some areas may creep into the mostly unfavorable description (partly cloudy, slight chance of showers) on one day or another. Saturday through Monday: Weakly Moderate Risk to tobacco in southwest VA, northeast TN, and northwest NC. Low Risk otherwise.
TK