North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 15 July: First report from the southern Appalachian Mountains in 2008. Blue mold has been discovered in a field in Washington County in the mountain empire of southwestern VA, near the town of Glade Spring. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. This source will be added to the forecasts. ***
*** Epidemic Update - 12 July: First report from PA in 2008. Blue mold has been discovered in a field in Lancaster County, PA near the town of New Holland. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
Forecast Summary: Thursday, July 17
Regional Weather (Southeast / mid-Atlantic States): Scattered to numerous showers parts of the Southeast; continued dry weather elsewhere. Weak high pressure governs the weather for most areas the next two days, with sunny to partly cloudy skies and no rain. The exception to the above is the far southern areas ... where a complex and uncertain mix of weather features near FL are still trying to sort themselves out with little success. An area of low pressure at the surface appears to be located just off the northeast FL coast. The current best guess is for this feature to move NNE, but the speed, strength, and direction are all in doubt as of this morning. What does seem likely is increased cloudiness and showers for FL, southern GA, and southern SC on Thursday, with the chance of showers spreading northward on Friday. Seasonal to hot temperatures most areas the next two days, highs in the 80's and 90's, lows in the 60's and 70's. Some 70's / 50's in the mountains.
OUTLOOK
Thursday and Friday
GA / FL sources: Transport events curve counterclockwise each day, influenced by the circulation of the Low over the ocean. Conditions will be favorable for survivable transport and deposition. Risk will probably be limited to the source region. However ... this situation will be watched closely due to the uncertainty involved. Thursday and Friday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for tobacco in northern FL and southern GA. Low Risk otherwise.
Eastern VA source: This source is quite weak. Conditions will be unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition the next two days. Thursday and Friday: Low Risk to tobacco near the source and along the forecast pathways.
Southeast PA source: Transport events operate under conditions unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Thursday and Friday: Low Risk to tobacco from these transport events.
Washington County, VA source: Transport events move very slowly northwest each day. Solar exposure will kill any spores released today. Conditions will be mostly unfavorable on Friday, warranting a little elevation in risk. Thursday and Friday: Weakly Moderate Risk to tobacco near the source (northwest NC, northeast TN, extreme southwest VA) on Friday. Low Risk otherwise.
TK