North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Thursday, May 15
Regional Weather (Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf of Mexico): Unsettled weather the next two days. Sunny to partly cloudy skies this morning in the eastern / southern areas. Skies in the western areas are mostly cloudy ... a harbinger of things to come. A cold front sinking toward the region from the northwest will move through the region on Friday. Clouds and showers will spread across the mainland areas of the Southeast today and tonight, tapering off in the western sections Friday morning and continuing for central and eastern sections on Friday. Greatest amounts of rain are expected in the western areas over the next two days. Much of the FL peninsula will remain dry. Highs in the 70's and 80's, lows in the 50's and 60's.
OUTLOOK
Thursday and Friday: Disease activity should be diminished near the northern FL source region due to lack of recent rainfall. Transport events from northern FL move through eastern GA and the Carolinas today, ENE and offshore on Friday. With a weak source and plenty of solar exposure today, long-range transport and deposition appear unlikely. Other than the possibility of localized disease development on Friday (showers over the source region), Low Risk to tobacco plants in the U.S. due to events from northern FL. Thursday's transport event from western Cuba curves over central FL after a day and a half of travel. Friday's event moves slowly ENE. Solar exposure should kill any airborne spores released from this source each day. Low Threat to tobacco plants in the United States.
TK