North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
*** Forecast Note - Saturday, 29 March: Our sections on disease biology and control recommendations have been updated. The new material is accessible via the link to the left.
*** Forecast Note - Tuesday, 25 March: Please read the Special Disease Note concerning the possible impacts of the recently discovered source in Alachua County, Florida.
Forecast Summary: Saturday, March 29
Regional Weather (Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf of Mexico): Back-door cold front moving into the region on Saturday. Cold, dreary weather for the Carolinas and Georgia. A classical cold-air damming scenario is evolving over the south Atlantic states. Strong high pressure in southeast Canada is pushing a cold front into the region from the north today. Skies are cloudy in the northern sections with light rain and showers. (At the Forecast Center, Friday's midday conditions of sunny to partly cloudy skies and temps in the upper 70's have been replaced with clouds, rain, and temps in the low 40's). Sunny to partly cloudy skies in SC and GA will be replaced by clouds and showers during the afternoon as the front continues south. The front will stall tonight over southern and western GA and remain there through Monday morning, when it will begin to dissipate and move north as the Canadian High shifts to the east. Expect mostly cloudy skies for most areas on Sunday. Light rain or drizzle for the Carolinas and much of GA; chance of showers portions of FL and near the front. More of the same for Monday with improving conditions from south to north. Rainfall amounts will be generally light. Temperatures .... highs will struggle to get out of the 40s and 50's north of the front. 70's and 80's expected south of the boundary. Some moderation will occur on Monday as winds shift to the southeast, but still below normal northern sections.
OUTLOOK
Saturday through Monday:
Northern Florida: Solar exposure will kill any airborne spores released on Saturday as the event moves slowly NNW. Low Risk to tobacco plants on Saturday. Sunday ... the trajectory moves to the west and then north through MS. Conditions are unfavorable for long-range transport and deposition, but mostly favorable near the source. Strongly Moderate Risk to tobacco plants in northern FL. Low Risk otherwise. Monday ... the transport event moves west and north through the FL panhandle, AL, and TN. Conditions will be mixed near the source, but are expected to be less favorable along the transport path Monday afternoon. This situation will be watched closely, as greater cloud cover would carry the potential for live spores to reach the growing areas of eastern AL and TN. At this time, Moderate Risk for tobacco plants in northern FL and southern GA for Monday's event. Low Risk otherwise.
Western Cuba: Transport events move west or WSW each day under unfavorable conditions, posing a Low Threat to the U.S. growing regions.
TK