North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
***** The forecast season will begin with the monitoring of transport events out of western Cuba. While we do not have any information regarding the presence or absence of blue mold in Cuba, in 8 of the last 12 years the first outbreaks in the United States have been the result of airborne transport of blue mold spores from Cuba to the growing regions of northern FL or southern GA. *****
Forecast Summary: Tuesday, March 18
Regional Weather (Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf of Mexico): Dry weather Tuesday followed by unsettled weather on Wednesday. High pressure extends down the eastern Seaboard ... and will be progressing to the east as another frontal system prepares to move through the region on Wednesday. Partly to mostly cloudy skies today though the eastern Gulf is largely clear. No precipitation expected. Cold frontal passage on Wednesday will give rise to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for much of the region. Drier weather returns on Thursday for all but the southernmost and easternmost areas. Temperatures ranging from the 50's north to low 80's south on Tuesday, and mostly 70's on Wednesday.
OUTLOOK
Tuesday and Wednesday: Tuesday's transport event curves northwest and then northeast over the western and northern edges of the Southeast. The portion of the event over land will be coincident with some clouds and rainfall. However, sunny skies over the Gulf this afternoon are yielding poor conditions for survivable transport of any airborne spores. Wednesday's event moves north and northeast, crossing central FL late Wednesday night. Again, solar exposure during the first 8 to 10 hours of the event yields unfavorable conditions for survivable transport. Low Risk to U. S. tobacco plants Tuesday and Wednesday.
TK