North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
***** The forecast season will begin with the monitoring of transport events out of western Cuba. While we do not have any information regarding the presence or absence of blue mold in Cuba, in 8 of the last 12 years the first outbreaks in the United States have been the result of airborne transport of blue mold spores from Cuba to the growing regions of northern FL or southern GA. *****
Forecast Summary: Thursday, March 13
Regional Weather (Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf of Mexico): Fair, dry weather on Thursday will be followed by unsettled weather on Friday as a now-developing system moves across the region. Clouds and the threat of rain will be on the increase from west to east on Thursday night, impacting mainly the northern 2/3 of the region on Friday. Temperatures will run at or above seasonal norms for mid-March.
OUTLOOK
Thursday and Friday: Thursday's transport event is a bit troublesome as it takes potential airborne spores north and east across northern FL / extreme southern GA late on Friday. Dispersion analysis indicates the possibility of deposition in those areas during the event. Conditions for survivable transport are mostly unfavorable to perhaps mixed this afternoon. If there were any active blue mold in western Cuba, Risk to U.S. tobacco plants would be Weakly Moderate. As in the case of the transport events last week, growers are encouraged to look for signs of disease in the next 7-10 days.
Friday's transport events also crosses the FL peninsula, but will track further to the south than Thursday's event, placing U.S. interests in little danger. Other than that mentioned above, Low Risk to U. S. tobacco plants Thursday and Friday.
TK