North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
***** The forecast season will begin with the monitoring of transport events out of western Cuba. While we do not have any information regarding the presence or absence of blue mold in Cuba, in 8 of the last 12 years the first outbreaks in the United States have been the result of airborne transport of blue mold spores from Cuba to the growing regions of northern FL or southern GA. *****
Forecast Summary: Thursday, March 6
Regional Weather (Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf of Mexico): Potent weather system to affect the Southeast on Friday. A tranquil day today for most areas under sunny to perhaps partly cloudy skies. Cloudiness and some scattered showers in the Gulf and southern FL are associated with a lingering stationary front which will be moving back to the north. These are precursors to the main event taking shape tonight ... when strong upper-level energy accompanying an approaching cold front will induce formation of an area of Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. The Low will then move northeast on Friday. Clouds will increase tonight with rain in the western sections. Showers and thunderstorms will then overspread much of the region on Friday and linger into Saturday for some areas.
OUTLOOK
Thursday and Friday: Southerly winds ahead of the developing weather system will cause transport events from western Cuba to move across the southeast U.S. during each event.
In-depth analysis indicates that any airborne spores would be moving across southern GA and northern FL before being washed out for Thursday's transport event. Friday's transport event has the potential to bring airborne spores (if any) across northern FL and the coastal plains of GA and the Carolinas. Conditions during Friday's event will be mixed to mostly favorable for survivable transport (somewhat higher than Thursday's).
There are few plants in the ground at this time. However, history has shown that plants in greenhouses can be impacted by airborne transport events. Growers with plants in greenhouses are advised to monitor them closely during the middle and latter portions of next week (March 12 to 16). If any airborne spores are coming from Cuba, primary lesions associated with any infections resulting from the Thursday / Friday transport events would probably appear during that time. With the lack of information from Cuba regarding source existence or source strength, the actual Risk to tobacco plants in the Southeast is unknown for these events.
TK